BOGEYBREAKERS ^TM

Vijay Singh won the 2002 Tour Championship with a score of 12 under par. Charles Howell III came in second two strokes behind. Phil Mickelson was well back tied for fifth at minus five, seven strokes behind Vijay and Tiger Woods was even further back, tied for seventh at four under par. But these are only the obvious facts about the 2002 Tour Championship. As usual, if you look beneath the surface the story is more interesting.

Vijay’s gross negative score (GNS, the result of adding up birdies and eagles) was -17. His gross positive score (GPS, the result of adding up bogeys, double bogeys and others)) was +5, for the winning minus 12. Phil’s GNS was -12, his GPS +7 for his -5 finish. Tiger on the other hand had a GNS of -18, one stroke better than Vijay but his GPS was +14, for his -4 net. Not at all like Tiger. To what can we attribute Tiger’s erratic play? Guess what? Tiger did something he rarely does, he led the tournament in driving distance but he also tied for the lead in number of double bogeys and came in 29th out of 30 players in driving accuracy.

Tiger wasn’t his usual patient self. He played more like Phil.

Who was patient?

Vijay was. Guess what other statistic Vijay came in tied for first? The fewest number of bogeys.

What does all of this mean for your game? It means that the sooner you start playing the Colonel Bogey Way, the sooner you will shed the Duffer label.

You are probably already getting enough pars and bogeys to have you breaking 100 or even 90 regularly but you are getting too many double bogeys and worse that are keeping you on the high side of 90 or 100.

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Over the course of a season, it is likely that less than half the time the winner would be the player with the most birdies and better (the Gross Negative Score, (GNS)). So who does win? Most of the time it is the player who makes the fewest mistakes over 72 holes that is the player with the fewest bogeys and worse (the Gross Positive Score, (GPS)).

And what is possibly the least important statistic? Most likely it is driving distance.

Here are some of the most dramatic statistics from the 2009 PGA Tour:

1. At the Honda Classic (March 5-8) the winner Y.E. Yang would have tied 11 others for 12th place if GNS determined the winner.
2. At the Transitions Championship (March 19-22) the winner Retief Goosen would have tied 14 others for 19th place.
3. Brian Gay had the lowest GNS and won the Verizon Heritage (April 16-19) by 10 strokes with only two bogeys in 72 holes. Incidentally, he was 72nd out of 78 in driving distance.
4. Jerry Kelly won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with a GNS of -18 which would have tied him with eight others for 12th place. George McNeill also had a GNS of -18. George tied for 67th place.
5. Sean O’Hair won the Quail Hollow Championship (April 30-May 3) with a GNS of -21 which would have tied him with four others for 3rd place. Brandon de Jonge also had a GPS of -21 and he tied for 44th place.
6. Tiger Woods won the BMW Championship with the lowest GNS (-23). J. D. Holmes finished first in two categories, driving distance and most bogeys. He finished 67th.
7. Phil Mickelson won The Tour Championship with the lowest GNS (-20). Phil had an eight on a par four hole in the first round. Who said Phil can’t be patient, at least for one tournament?

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(Nor does driving distance)

If birdies (and better) determined the winner on the PGA Tour, Heath Slocum (-19 GNS) instead of coming in first, would have tied with 10 others for eighth place at last week’s McGladrey Classic. Jeff Quinney (-21 GNS) would have finished first instead of tying for ninth place and six others (-20 GNS) would have tied for second place. GNS stands for Gross Negative Score, that is, the total of birdies and better. Justin Leonard was one of the six with a GNS of -20. Justin finished tied for 45th place and took home $10,836. Heath (-19) took home $720,000. Justin received $542 for each birdie while Heath received $3,632 per birdie.

How come?

The answer is very simple, and it is true most weeks on the pro tour. Heath had a GPS of +5 while Justin had a GPS of +15 (GPS =Gross Positive Score, i.e. bogeys and worse). Similarly, Scott McCarron who tied Heath in GNS came in tied for 45^th because of a GPS of +13.

Bill Haas’s GNS was only -16, yet Bill finished second and took home $432,000 thanks to an incredible GPS of +3 (three bogeys in 72 holes). Thus, Bill received $2,700 for each birdie compared to Justin’s $542. Alex Hamilton also had a GNS of -16 and thanks to a GPS of +11 tied for 45^th.

Similarly driving distance has very little significance in determining the winner week after week on the PGA Tour. Slocum came in 66^th out of 73 players at the McGladrey. Jeff Quinney, who had the most birdies came in 72^nd. Just maybe the more important statistic was driving accuracy where Keith was 4th and Jeff tied for 5^th. Charles Howell III was number one in driving distance and tied for 6^th overall while J.B. Holmes was 2^nd and finished 59^th overall most likely because he tied for 69^th in driving accuracy.

Colonel Bogey for Bogeybreakers^TM

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At the 2007 United States Open Tiger Woods had only eight birdies in his four rounds. So did George McNeill. The USGA paid Tiger $76,417 per birdie and George $2,045 per birdie. How come you ask? Well unfortunately for George and his fellow competitors in USGA events and on the PGA Tour players are not paid by the birdie, or eagle, or by driving distance, or by greens in regulation, or fewest putts per round.

In fact, most weeks on the PGA Tour the statistic that determines winners and losers is a statistic you probably never heard of, something called the Gross Positive Score (GPS). The GPS measures mistakes (bogeys and worse) and in almost every tournament he plays in Tiger has the best GPS. That’s why Tiger is the Number One player in the world. He does not out drive, or out putt, or out chip the competition but he does out think the competition and he has been doing so ever since he turned Pro.

At this year’s U.S. Open Tiger’s GPS was +14 four strokes better than anyone else. That’s how he tied for second place with only eight birdies. By the way the USGA did not discriminate in Tiger’s favor. George McNeill’s GPS was +34.

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A number of theories have been given in answer to this question but the best answer was given by Ted Purdy himself. In his post-game interviews, Ted said something along the following lines (not exact quotes):

I really won the tournament yesterday (i.e., his third round on Saturday). Usually I have one bad round in a tournament and that could have happened yesterday. I had to sink several long putts to save par and I did. I stayed patient and what could have been a 72 or 73 ended up a 68.

I suppose I could have had a few more birdies if I had gone for the pins more but that’s not the way you win golf tournaments.

Ted had no eagles, 20 birdies, and only 5 bogeys in 72 holes for a net of -15.

Sean O’Hair was one stroke back at -14 based on 18 birdies, an eagle and 6 bogeys.

Vijay Singh was 4 strokes back. He had 20 birdies, an eagle but 11 bogeys.

Scott Verplank and J.J. Henry each had 20 birdies, the same as Ted Purdy. Scott tied for 6th thanks to 8 bogeys and one double bogey. J.J., who was first in driving distance, tied for 10th with 11 bogeys. But before you feel too sorry for them, think of poor Craig Perks who had 19 birdies, only one fewer than Ted, but Craig tied for 35th because of 14 bogeys.

Thus, as Ted recognized himself, it was Ted’s smart patient play that produced 27 finishing holes without a bogey. Over that 27 hole stretch Ted had 7 birdies but so did a lot of his competitors. The bogeyless streak is how Ted got his first PGA Tour win and that’s how Ted is likely to get many more wins.

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For those of you who still have doubts, this year’s Masters should be the clincher. The Secret to Golf is Patience. Tiger proved it and so did Chris DiMarco. Tiger’s first round was a 74. Of the 50 players who made the cut, 28 had better first round scores. But obviously Tiger did not give up. Tiger shot a great second round (66) but so did Chris (67). Not until his second nine in his third round (41) did Chris show any signs of fading. By the end of the third round Tiger was leading by three strokes. Given Tiger’s reputation and his record for holding a lead, Chris could easily have given up at this point but clearly he did not. In the past in similar situations Tiger was usually able to count on his nearest competitors fading. Chris did not fade and Chris’s patience paid off. Chris played 18 holes of smart golf and at the end his second best round of the day (68) tied him with Tiger.

That Tiger beat Chris in the playoff was almost anticlimactic.

The first 72 holes told the story. On average Chris gave up over 25 yards per drive. You probably heard Chris talk about the hole on which he hit a four iron to the green while Tiger was hitting a wedge. Tiger’s length did help put him in a position to get closer to some pins, and thus to make more birdies (24) than Chris (19) but Tiger also made more bogeys (12) than Chris (7). Chris’s GPS of +7 was by two strokes the lowest of the 50 finishers and that is why he was in the playoff.

David Howell’s 17 birdies and an eagle tied him with Chris in the GNS category (-19). David finished tied for 11th ten strokes behind Chris because he had 11 bogeys and three double bogeys (GPS +17).

If you have not yet read the Colonel Bogey lessons, then stop wasting time reading these articles and get to the lessons. The lessons explain the heart of the Colonel’s philosophy of golf and how patience is the golfer’s secret weapon. If you have read the lessons, but not recently, then go read them again. Remember, every Spring you should remind your body and brain what the game is all about. But don’t read all of the lessons in one sitting. Read one lesson per day and preferably at night. After reading a lesson try taking a few slow motion practice swings in your living room, and then go to sleep, but before you dose off picture playing one hole of golf intelligently and patiently.

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By now you all know that Fred Funk won the 2005 Players Championship ($1,440,000.00) which reportedly included the top 50 players in the world.

If driving distance determined the winner, Fred would have finished 80th out of the 82 players who finished four rounds. Ernie Els (T17) would have finished first.
If birdies and eagles alone determined the winner Fred (with a GNS of -17) would have finished tied for 16th with 11 other players. That’s right, 26 players had a GNS equal to or better than Fred’s. Another 10 players had a GNS of -16 just one stroke behind Fred. This group included Tag Ridings who finished last.

So how could Fred have won given the above facts? As usual, the answer is Fred’s GPS of +8 the lowest of the 82 finishers. The two players who finished with GNS’s of -21, J.L. Lewis (T8) and Steve Lowery (T12) had GPS’s of +16 and +17, respectively. And you might well ask, how could Fred do it on a really tough course with an average drive of only 253.4 yards? Well there are two other statistics I have not mentioned yet and Fred tied for first in one and finished first alone in the other. Driving accuracy (T1). Greens in regulation (#1).

And, oh by the way, Fred will turn 49 this year.

It is also worth noting that this is only the second tournament this year in which driving accuracy has been highly relevant to the players’ course management. Fred has not won very many tournaments (7 PGA tournament victories since 1989), but he has always faired well on courses that are not designed to be forgiving for players who can drive the ball far but can’t aim. Fred is on his way to his fourth year in a row of earning more than $2 million for the season, not bad for a PGA Tour player who has never finished higher than 163rd on the driving distance list over that period.

If you are ever wondering why so many weekend golfers are loading up on the $500 drivers and the $5 golf balls only to unload off the tee sending their $5 into the rough, the trees, or the ponds just consider that they are the victims of a big hoax, dare I say, conspiracy. The conspirators or perhaps con artists are the golf club manufacturers, the golf ball manufacturers, the editors and writers in most of the golf magazines, the announcers on most of the golf television shows (Johnny Miller being one of the exceptions) and at most of the professional golf tournaments, and more often the golf tournament sponsors who force the course superintendents to widen the fairways and shorten the roughs.

A 300 yard drive is only better than a 250 yard drive if accuracy is not a factor. Accuracy is not a factor only if the golfer already has accuracy in his bag or if the golf course layout is so forgiving that it makes accuracy not important. Few professional golfers and almost no amateurs are so accurate that the part of their game that is holding them back is their driving distance. Yet, all you need to do is turn on the TV or open a golf magazine to get blasted with a bunch of lies about how improving your distance off the tee will improve your game.

Professional golfers are just as big a bunch of suckers as the average weekend golfer when it comes to falling for this lie. If you don’t believe me just take a look at the statistics from almost any professional tournament. Or perhaps consider when Tiger was playing his best golf in his first few years on the tour. The smart analysts of the games talked about how smart Tiger’s golf management skills were and the simpletons commented on how far he hit the ball. Well, Tiger is back to hitting the ball rather far, but hmmmm, it seems like something is still coming up short in his game. Perhaps he needs a new driver. But more likely he needs to return to the thinking man’s game that made him the golf sensation he is.

Or perhaps consider Fred Funk’s victory this past Sunday. Fred played smart and used great aim to take home the trophy and quite a bit of spending money. One thing to keep in mind is that it is possible to be accurate and also to hit the ball rather far. But the smart golfers hold back their distance if it starts to detract from their accuracy. Jack Nicklaus said many times that he rarely tried to use 100% of his power. Fred Funk has a long reputation for driving accuracy, but not for driving distance. We can give him the benefit of the doubt and suppose that he is such a smart student of the game that he practices more on accuracy than worrying about distance because he has always known that this is the key to success. Or we could consider the possibility that he realized early in his career that he would never be amongst the longer hitters on the tour and decided that his only chance at making a career of golf was to focus on accuracy. Well regardless of what his early motivation was he has his priorities in order. Just imagine how many wasted strokes would disappear from all of the worlds score cards if every golfer looked at the 2005 Players Championship and realized that every player in the field had plenty of distance to win it and most had enough birdies (and few scattered eagles), but only one player had the combination of skills in the right order of importance.

Tag Ridings finished 20th in driving distance and 80th in driving accuracy and took home fourteen thousand dollars to Fred Funk’s 1.4 million. Does any golfer doubt that Tag would be willing to give up a few of those driving yards in exchange for some of Fred’s dollars?

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The 2005 PGA golf season is off to a great start with the first full field tournament of the year, the Sony Open in Hawaii. As usual, driving distance was the least important statistic in determining the top finishers. Of the top 20 dollar-wise, only five were in the top 20 on the driving distance list. Craig Stadler was 56th in driving distance, tied for 9th and took home almost $125 thousand. Tom Byrum and Adam Scott were two of the eight players to tie for 20th place and take home $48,420. Tom finished 68th in driving distance and Adam finished first.

And, as usual, GPS was the most important statistic. If GNS determined the winner Vijay Singh (-17) would have tied for 8th and Ernie Els (-23) would have beaten the rest of the field by four strokes. John Riegger’s GNS was -18, one stroke better than Vijay’s. Not only did John not beat Vijay, John finished tied for 47th place and took home $12,053 to Vijay’s $864,000. The difference? Vijay’s GPS was +6 while John’s was +20. But then there was poor Dean Wilson whose -13 GNS was only four strokes less than Vijay’s winning -17. Dean finished 76th thanks to a +21 GPS and thus netted about $700.00 for each (gross) stroke under par while Vijay netted over $50,000 per gross negative stroke.

In summary, of the 12 golfers who had a GPS of +9 or better, eight finished in the top 12 on the money list.

While he probably was not totally happy with his performance, Retief Goosen deserves special congratulations for his tie for 56th which netted him over $10,000 for the week. Why? Because on his first hole of the tournament, Retief took a nine on a par four. You and I both know how a typical weekend duffer who rarely breaks 100 would have responded to such a start. While brooding over the bad start they would throw away more and more strokes and probably leave the course wishing they had stayed at home. Not Retief. He finished the first round with a respectable 72 just made the cut and at least made his expenses for the week with a few bucks to spare once again proving that the secret to golf is patience.

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In most of the PGA Tour tournaments played so far in 2005 the long hitters have been able to swing from their heels with virtually no concern for whether or not they ended up in the fairway. Not so at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Invitational. This is not to say that distance didn’t help. The winner, Kenny Perry finished fourth in driving distance but distance did not win the tournament for him. He also finished fourth in fairways hit and, thanks to that accuracy, finished first in greens in regulation (GIR). What was the most important statistic in Perry’s victory? Once again, the most important statistic was the Gross Positive Score (GPS). Perry’s GPS was +5. The next best was Vijay Singh’s +7 (tied for 2nd) and after that, three players at +8, one of whom was Graeme McDowell who tied Vijay for 2nd.

What about that other biggie, the Gross Negative Score (GNS)? Number one was Retief Goosen who had 19 birdies and an eagle for a GNS of -21. Retief finished fourth because of his GPS of +16 but Retief had a lot to be proud of nonetheless. At the end of the first round it appeared that Retief had little chance of making the cut since he shot a 78. But Retief did not give up and took home $240,000 for his week’s effort.

Darren Clarke (T8) and Jimmy Walker (T19) both had GNS’s of -19 and Graeme McDowell (T2) and Aaron Baddeley (T5) both had GNS’s of -18. Thus if the GNS determined the winner Kenny Perry’s -17 would have tied him for 6th with Vijay Signh and four other players (Patrick Sheehan, T5; Briney Baird, T8; K.J. Choi, T8; and Adam Scott, T30).

The relative importance of the GPS is illustrated even more dramatically at the -16 GNS level which included Steward Cink (T8), Jonathan Kaye (T30) and Greg Owen (T44). While Greg finished only one stroke behind winner Perry in the GNS category he finished 15 strokes behind in net score (combination of GNS and GPS) and took home $15,000 to Perry’s $900,000.

How did Tiger fair for the week? That’s an interesting story. Tiger finished tied for 23rd with Fred Funk and five others ($42,142, with net scores of -1). The most interesting comparison is between Tiger and Fred. Tiger finished first in driving distance (299.8) and Fred finished last (249.0). An average difference of “only” 50 yards per hole. Tiger finished 67th in driving accuracy and Fred finished tied for 11th. Both had net scores of -1 for the tournament. Tiger’s GNS was -13 and his GPS +12. Fred’s GNS was -9 and his GPS +8. The other most interesting person in this group was Ernie Els. Ernie had a GNS of -15, just two strokes off the winners -17 but Ernie had a GPS of +14 compared to Kenny’s +5. Ernie was fourth in driving distance and tied for 58th in driving accuracy.

John Daly is always of interest and Bay Hill was no exception. John finished 69th out of 69 players who made the cut. John’s GNS was -13 (11 birdies and an eagle) so he was only four strokes behind the winner in this category. But John’s GPS was +27. He finished 7th in driving distance and tied for 62nd in driving accuracy.

So many, many thanks to Arnold Palmer. As many golf writers and golf announcers have pointed out for some time now just lengthening the courses does not penalize the long hitters, it helps them if the rough is so short that it does not penalize. With a meaningful rough, long but inaccurate drives are penalized as they should be. Fred Funk and many others proved it.

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One of the never-ending debates among golfers is whether driving distance or driving accuracy is more important on the PGA Tour in determining the winner week in and week out (when there is virtually no rough). The short answer is “neither.” And if you think that the number of birdies and eagles usually determines the winner most weeks, you are also wrong.

The 2005 Honda Classic is pretty typical of most tournaments. Padraig Harrington beat Vijay Singh and Joe Ogilvie in a playoff. Padraig finished 8th in driving distance to Vijay’s 17th and Joe’s 52nd. But that’s not why Padraig was tied for first after 72 holes. Nor was it because he had the most birdies and eagles.

Actually, if the Gross Negative Score (GNS) determined the winner Padraig (-20 GNS) would have tied with Vijay and three others for seventh place. Ogilvie (-23 GNS) would have finished first, David Toms and Geoff Ogilvy at -22 GNS would have tied for second and Lucas Glover, Billy Andrade and Fred Couples at -21 GNS would have tied for fourth. But the Gross Negative Score no more determines the winner in a golf tournament than does the number of hits determine the winner in baseball or first downs in football.

In almost every PGA Tour event the top finishers are the players with the fewest number of bogeys and worse, that is the lowest Gross Positive Score (GPS). How important is the GPS compared to the GNS? Well, let’s compare Padraig with Joe Durant who also had a -20 GNS at the Honda. Thanks to Padraig’s GPS of only +6 he was in the playoff and ended up winning $990,000. Joe had a GPS of +15 to go with his -20, finished tied for 34th and took home $29,012. Or consider Chad Campbell whose -18 GNS was only two strokes behind Padraig but thanks to a +16 GPS, Chad tied for 52nd and took home $12,760.

A low GPS can also make up for a lot of missed birdies. Justin Rose had a GNS of only -13. Of the 79 golfers who finished at the Honda, only 10 had a worse GNS. Nonetheless, Justin tied for 14th and took home $99,000 because his +5 GPS was the lowest in the tournament.

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