BOGEYBREAKERS ^TM

Chris Couch’s 8th place finish in driving distance on the PGA Tour in 2004 won him the uncoveted crown of “Least Buck ($) for the Bang” (LBB). Notwithstanding his driving distance prowess, Couch earned only $100,000 in 2004, barely enough to cover expenses but once again proving that driving distance is the least relevant statistic in determining success on the PGA Tour.

Couch’s performance earned him $3.01 per driving yard. Contrast this with Fred Funk who finished 192nd in driving distance but earned over two million dollars and over $40.00 per driving yard (PDY).

Couch’s competition for the LBB award among the top 10 in driving distance came from Mike Heinen ($5.14/PDY), Lucas Glover ($10.09/PDY), Scott Hend ($10.76/PDY), Chris Smith ($10.89/PDY), and Hank Kuehne ($14.60/PDY and #1 in driving distance).

In the top 25 in driving distance for 2004, Dan Olsen (#25) was Couch’s closest competitor with $3.12/PDY. Like Couch, Olsen probably barely covered his expenses for the year.

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Watch Phil in the Majors: 2004 Could be the Year

Colonel Bogey and many others have written many words on Phil Mickelson’s failure to win a major and his prospects for winning any in the future. Frankly, Colonel Bogey has had his doubts that Phil would ever win a major. The Colonel has changed his mind. This could be the year and this week’s Masters could very likely be Phil’s first Major. What has changed?

Phil has changed. He is now playing the kind of golf that wins major tournaments. It is not surprising that Phil is near the top (2nd as of this writing) in number of birdies per round. But it is surprising that if there were a fewest bogeys per round statistic Phil would be near the top of it too. Many commentators and writers have mentioned Phil’s “conservative play” so far in 2004. The Colonel thinks Phil’s 2004 play is conservative only if compared with Phil’s play in previous years. The phrase the Colonel would use is “smart play.”

And Phil’s smart play has paid off so far. He is number two on the money list and has not been out of the top 10 in the seven events he has played this year. So keep your eye on Phil this week because he could be donning a green jacket before it is over.

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Phil Mickelson continues to play the kind of smart golf that makes him one of the favorites for this week’s U.S. Open. Bet you never thought you would see Phil in 32nd place in driving distance as he was at last week’s Buick Classic but it shows how far he is willing to go to have the kind of control he needs to win more Majors. Keep your eye on Rory Sabbatini at Shinnecock. Rory was seventh in number of birdies at the Buick but he tied for first because his Gross Positive Score (GPS) was only +6 (4 bogeys and 1 double bogey). As the Colonel has pointed out before, the GPS is the most important (and least known) statistic week after week in determining who wins on the PGA Tour. Even for Tiger. At the Buick Invitational earlier this year Tiger tied for first in the Gross Negative Score (GNS) category with a -21 but he finished tenth in the tournament because of his +13 GPS. As Golfweek pointed out in its current issue, “Tiger Woods and Mickelson seemingly have switched styles…”

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At the end of the third round of the World Golf Championship (August 25, 2002)
Craig Parry was tied for the lead with Robert Allenby at 10 under par. An announcer
asked Parry what his strategy had been thus far. Parry answered that he had
been going for the middle of the greens. The announcer asked what his strategy
would be for the final round and Parry answered “Well, it’s worked so far
so why change it?”

Parry won by four shots over Allenby and his win was typical of what happens
week in and week out on the pro tour. Parry’s Gross Negative Score (GNS) was
-20. Allenby’s GNS was -23. Eight golfers in the top 12 finishers had a GNS
equal to or better than Parry’s (see chart below). So how did Parry win by 4
strokes? By making fewer mistakes, that’s how. Parry had only four bogeys in
72 holes. Allenby had 7 bogeys and two double bogeys to go with his -23 GNS,
for a final -12.

Phil Mickelson who finished at -7 to tie for ninth had a -20 GNS to tie Parry
in that category, but he had nine bogeys and two double bogeys for a Gross Positive Score (GPS) of +13 and a net minus seven. Note that Phil did finish first in one category. He had the most eagles,
three. So what? As, discussed elsewhere, this is typical Mickelson and is the
reason why he may never win a major championship.

Note that the most significant column in the above table in terms of final standing is the Gross Positive Score column.

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If the winner of a golf tournament was determined by the Gross Negative Score
(GNS), Tiger Woods would win a lot fewer golf tournaments. For example, Tiger’s
-20 GNS would have placed him no better than 5th in last weeks Buick Invitational
behind Mark Calcavecchia (-25), Jonathan Kaye (-22), Carl Pettersson (-21) and
Brian Baird (-21). Marco Dawson’s -16 GNS tied him with Geoff Ogilvy but Dawson
took home $130,950 while Ogilvy took home $9,270. In fact, in spite of his -16
GNS, Ogilvy finished a full 60 places behind Dawson. What accounts for these
results?

If you are a regular follower of Colonel Bogey’s statistics, you already know
the answer. In the Buick the Gross Positive Score (GPS) was, as usual, the most
important statistic column. Dawson had a GPS of only +7, while Ogilvy’s GPS
was +19. Thus, the $120,000+ difference on payday.

Guess who had the lowest GPS for the tournament? Tiger, of course, with just
+4. Tiger had one bogey in each round so his GNS of -20 and GPS of +4 was good
enough to beat the rest of the field by 4 strokes in net score.

If driving distance (DD) interests you, here are some figures to consider.
Tiger finished 4th in driving distance and took home $810,000 for winning the
tournament, while Brent Geiberger finished first in driving distance and took
home $43,000+ for his tie for 21st finish. Carl Petterrson finished 42nd in
driving distance but took home $486,000 for second place in the tournament.

There were some good signs for Mickelson fans. Despite all of the media hype
over Phil’s GOLF magazine interview plus his playing with Tiger in the last
round, Phil’s GPS was only +7. Phil had, for him, an unusual first round in
which he had no bogeys or double bogeys. The mystery is why Phil had a double
bogey in each of his middle rounds on an admittedly very difficult golf course
but a course on which there were not many double bogeys by those who made the
cut.

Keep your eye on Arron Oberholser who had the worst GNS (-15) in the top ten
but who tied for 4th because his GPS was only +5, second only to Tiger.

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I heard recently that there was going to be an investigation of the drivers currently being used on the PGA Tour to determine whether some exceed the maximum “bounce” standards. One of the reasons given was that something must be wrong if Tiger Woods is 30th in average driving distance on the Tour for the first half of 2003. The PGA might as well save their money. Here’s why:

1. Of the top 40 in driving distance (averaging over 290 yards per drive) only 8 rank in the top 40 on the money list. Thirteen rank 122nd or worse on the money list and 2 of the top 40 drivers ranked 169 and 174 on the money list, each earning less than $100,000, not enough to cover their expenses for six months.

2. Mike Weir, currently number 1 on the money list (over 4 million dollars earned for his six months effort) is tied for 75th on the driving distance list.

3. Fred Funk, number 15 on the money list (over $1.5 million) ranks 177 (out of 185) on the driving distance list.

So they can investigate the long drivers all they want. They are not the ones making the money. Maybe they need to check Fred Funk’s driver to see if there is some illegal ingredient that keeps his ball in the fairway.

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At the end of the first two rounds of the 2003 Chrysler Classic, Ty Tryon
had a Gross Negative Score (GNS) of -11 and Dean Wilson had a GNS of -7. Ty
did not make the cut while Dean finished tied for 6th place and took home $97,125.
The difference? At the end of two rounds Ty had a GPS of +12. At the end of
four rounds, Dean had a GPS of +2. That’s right, +2, meaning just two bogeys
in 72 holes. Admittedly, Ty is still a teenager so it will probably take a while
for him to learn that all those birdies and eagles are not worth much when they
are offset by an equal or greater number of bogeys and worse.

What about the leaders? Frank Lickliter II finished third in both GNS and
GPS, a winning combination that netted him a first place check of $540,000.
Chad Wilson finished fifth in GNS and fourth in GPS for second place overall
and a check for $324,000. The "winner" in the GNS column (-26) (see
chart below) was Todd Barranger but unfortunately Todd was +17 in GPS and thus
finished tied for 26th. Of some ironic relevance might be the fact that Todd
tied for first for most eagles (2), finished fourth in driving distance, but
tied for 80th in driving accuracy.

Aaron Barber had an interesting week. In his first two rounds he had 11 birdies
and in his second two rounds he had 11 birdies. In his first two rounds his
GPS was +9 but in his second two rounds his GPS was zero. What difference did
his bogey free third and fourth rounds make? He finished tied for fourth, worth
$132,000.

Kenichi Kuboya is also an interesting story. He was in the top 20 in GNS (-19),
but took home money for a 68th place tie. How much satisfaction do you think
he got from his sole number one finish, first place in number of bogeys for
the week?

You might be inclined to think that Steve Elkington had a "so so"
week. Steve took home $31,200 for being tied for 23rd. But Steve did something
in his last 68 holes that the average weekend duffer never does. On the fourth
hole of the first round Steve took a 7 on a par 3. Steve didn’t let that 7 bother
him the way most average duffers who are incapable of breaking 100 would let
it bother them. He hung in there and made a decent week’s pay.

Look through the table below and draw your own conclusions. Tag Ridings finished
in the bottom 10 after two rounds (T136) and didn’t make the cut but his GNS
(-8) for those two rounds was within three strokes of 10 out of the top 12 "winners"
for those same rounds. Once again, driving distance played a very small role
in deciding winners and losers. Only one of the top 12 in the tournament finished
in the top 10 in driving distance. Think of poor Stewart Cink , and Aaron Oberholser
(55th and 57th respectively in DD) and each had to settle for $97,125. Or Steve
Flesch tied for 59th in DD and had to settle for $75,000. Imagine how embarrassing
it would have been if one of them had to play with Grant Waite who was fifth
in DD and took home $5,300.

* Both Ty and Tag are in the top 20 in driving distance for
the 2003 season, so far.

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A strange thing happened at the Nissan Open. Tiger Woods came in #1 in Gross
Negative Score (GNS) (-21) and did not win the tournament. Why not? The reason,
as you can see from the table below is that Tiger had a Gross Positive Score
(GPS) of +15. In his first 3 rounds, Tiger had 10 bogeys and two double bogeys.
Very un-Tiger-like. Fred Funk was also very un-Fred-like. He was second to Tiger
in GNS (-19) but had a GPS of +12. But, as is discussed below, we cannot consider
either Tiger or Fred losers, not by a long shot.

And what two players tied for first after 72 holes? Mike Weir and Charles Howell
III who also tied for first with the lowest GPS with +7’s. So, once again, the
GPS column determined the winner.

The table below reveals some other interesting facts. The "winner"
in the long driving contest was Chris Smith who tied for 51st overall and cashed
a check for $10,732. Anyone think he might like to trade places with Fred Funk
who came in 65th in driving distance but cashed a check for $261,000. Note also
that Chris didn’t fare badly in the GNS column (-18) but had a killer +23 in
the GPS column.

Another major lesson we weekend golfers can take from the play of Woods and
Funk relates to putting bad shots, bad holes, and bad scores behind us and playing
the next shot, hole, round. After three rounds Tiger was tied for 28th and Fred
for 10th. Both could easily have just gone through the motions in the fourth
round or even worse dwelt on the number of bogeys and worse they had in the
previous three rounds and as a result do the same on Sunday. Instead, both returned
to their normal steady, smart play and moved up the leader board significantly.

I don’t want to finish on a negative note but feel compelled to point out that
the real "losers" at the Nissan are not mentioned above because they
did not make the cut. At the end of two rounds the GNSs for the final top ten
ranged from -5 (Campbell) to -10 (Howell, Funk and Mattice). So how would you
feel if at the end of two rounds you had a GNS of -9 (Tom Pernice), -8 (Carl
Paulson and Tom Levet), or -7 (Eduardo Romero, Carlos Franco, and Matt Gogel),
and you didn’t even get to play on the weekend. I won’t tell you what the GPS
was for these players but you can pretty well guess since the cut was at +3.
Looks like there are a lot of strong, long ball hitting, young players on the
PGA Tour who need to learn the value of a par.

Any player who is good enough to make it onto the PGA Tour can have reasonable
success on the tour by playing for safe pars and keeping themselves in position
to capitalize on birdie and eagle opportunities. By capitalize I mean they should
take full advantage of whatever negative number they shoot, rather than just
using it to offset a bogey or double bogey. But most will shoot for birdies
and eagles no matter how high the risk and then toil away on many holes trying
to save par or bogey.

If your goals are not more lofty than breaking 100 (or even 90), then shoot
for bogey and accept the occassional double bogey. Keep yourself in position
so that when a par or birdie opportunity presents itself you will be there to
take advantage of it. Then as soon as you have your par (ocassional birdie),
bogey, or double bogey, walk to the next tee with a strategy to get a bogey.

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The first two days of the Sony Open in Hawaii must have been very exciting for
Ty Tryon, Geoff Ogilvy, and Jay Don Blake. Tryon and Don Blake each had 11 birdies
in their first two rounds and Tryon had an eagle to go with his birdies. Ogilvy
only had 9 birdies but he had 2 eagles to go with them.

Things started a bit slower for Stuart Appleby, Dan Forsman, and Rory Sabbatin
in their first two rounds. Appleby had only 6 birdies, Forsman 7, and Sabbitani
5, and none of them had an eagle.

But at the end of the tournament that Thursday/Friday birdie/eagle excitement
was all Tryon, Ogilvy, and Don Blake had to show for their week. None of them
took home a dollar because none of them made the cut.

While Appleby, Forsman, and Sabbitani may have had a lot less excitement in
their first two rounds, they had a lot more to show for their week’s effort.
Appleby took home $162,000, Forsman $94,500, and Sabbatani $31,275.

While birdies and eagles can be a very exciting addition to a round of golf
their real value is always judged, as many things in life, by the return they
produce for the round. You won’t be impressed by a stock broker whose investments
increased by 3,000% in one day, as a result of some shrewd decision making by
him, if at the end of the year he was fired for having lost his company millions.
Likewise you would not be impressed by the real estate investor who puts $100,000
into remodeling the kitchen of a one-bedroom bungalow that she purchased for
$150,000 if the two and three bedroom bungalows on the same street are selling
for $175,000 to $200,000.

While the stock broker might have had a brilliant day and the real estate
investor might have created a beautiful room, neither of them are going to get
the praise they desire if in the end there was no payoff from their efforts.
The broker’s clients want to know how he has performed over the long term and
the real estate investor’s clients want to know how the building investments
have increased the value of the entire house.

Golf is much the same way, whether you are a professional or a weekend golfer.
While the weekend golfer might get excited about an eagle regardless of the
rest of the days scores they generally spend too much time getting excited about
the prospective birdies and pars, when their excitement should come from not
getting double bogeys and triple bogeys.

Tryon, Ogilvy, and Don Blake ended up being losers at the Sony Open simply
because the excitement of birdies and eagles can never compete with the tremendous
dulling effect of excessive bogeys and double bogeys. The key to impressing
your friends on your weekend round is the same as the key to winning on the
pro tour. Try to have a brilliant round by pursuing a lot of good holes of golf,
rather than investing everything in pursuit of a few brilliant holes and producing
a dull round.

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November, 2002: The story up to now. (to be continued at least until Phil wins
a Major.)

Fact: Phil Mickelson has never won a Major.

Opinion: Phil Mickelson may never win a Major unless….

Would you like to know what follows the “unless”? Well of course
you do. After all the devil is in the details.

Would you like to know how knowing what follows the “unless” can
help you enjoy every round of golf you play for the rest of your life and take
5-20 strokes off your current average score?

The Mickelson Watch is going to follow Phil’s progress as he tries to
achieve the elusive Major victory and in doing so illustrate through Phil’s
good or bad example the Colonel Bogey Way to play golf.

Phil Mickelson will probably never win a Major golf tournament unless he truly
develops and understands patience.

Colonel Bogey would like to see Phil win a Major. The young man certainly loves
the game of golf and he is without a doubt a phenomenal talent. But the reason
it is easy to feel bad for Phil is that he does not seem to understand that
when it comes to winning a Major he is his own most fierce opponent.

There may be some hope for Mickelson fans. While Phil came in third, four shots
back in the 2002 Masters, and while he played typical Mickelson golf (in last
round he birdied his first two holes and bogeyed the next two) his post-round
interview showed that he may actually be starting to change his thinking on
the course. In the interview he actually used the word “patience.”
At least this is a start.

For a short time it appeared that Mickelson fans could once again take some
hope from Phil’s play in the 2002 U.S. Open. It appeared that just possibly
Phil was starting to learn what it takes to win a major championship. But, based
on interviews given soon after the Open, it appears that Phil may have learned
just the opposite of what he must learn before he will win a Major. When interviewed
at the Greater Hartford Open, Phil said in response to a question on what it
would take to beat Tiger, “I’ve got to play a more attacking style
in Thursday’s and Friday’s rounds. I’m not in a position and
neither is anyone else, to spot him a big lead.” Taking a “more attacking
style” is exactly the wrong way for Phil to win a major. It is his attacking
style that has kept him from winning a major to this date. In winning 8 Majors
to date, only once before the 2002 U.S. Open, did Tiger lead after the first
or second round.

The week that Tiger played like Phil: The Tour Championship-2002.

In the 2002 Tour Championship Tiger Woods did some very stupid things (after
the tournament we found out that Tiger was having trouble with a knee and we
still do not know whether that affected his play). Tiger came in first in driving
distance (which may be why he hit less than 50% of the fairways), and tied for
first in number of birdies and number of double bogeys. Tiger finished tied
for 7th, 8 strokes behind the winner Vijay Singh. Notwithstanding his lack of
driving accuracy, Tiger’s 18 birdies placed him first in gross negative
score (GNS). Singh’s GNS was -17, while second place finisher Howell’s
was -15 and third place finisher Tom’s was -16. How did Tiger finish 8
strokes behind Singh. Well, in addition to his two double bogeys, Tiger had
10 (count them, 10) bogeys in 72 holes.

And guess what? Phil may actually be learning something about playing smart,
about the value of a par (as I think Johnny Miller put it). Phil actually tied
for first for the most pars, 53 in 72 holes and he actually got through 72 holes
without a double bogey and only 7 bogeys. Maybe 2003 will be the year Phil wins
a Major. It also could be the year you shed the Duffer label (5-20 strokes less
will do it) and learn to enjoy every round you play for the rest of your golfing
life.

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